Josh’s Final Four predictions
It’s March Madness Tourney Time, and nothing is better. I had the pleasure of attending the Villanova vs. Pittsburgh game last Saturday night. Villanova ended up winning 78-76 with a finger roll layup with .5 seconds left in the second half, just after Fields (Pitt) hit two free throws to tie the game.
Unfortunately, I was pulling for Pittsburgh because I had them winning the whole tournament in my money bracket. I have to give respect to the Villanova fans. Nearly 90 percent of the T.D. Banknorth Garden was Nova supporters, which without a doubt helped them to victory.
This game was hands down the best in the tourney so far and not just because I was present.
In the semi-finals on Saturday, North Carolina will probably prove too much for Villanova to overcome, but I know Villanova will fight hard. UConn, however, has to get past a powerful Michigan State team that’s playing on home turf. Michigan State should be well prepared by coach Tom Izzo, and this will be the game to watch this weekend as these teams have proven they deserve to be there. But the odds are that North Carolina and UConn will emerge as winners.
So, on Monday, I believe that North Carolina will emerge victorious over UConn. While I may not like them, I believe that Hansboro and Lawson will bring back a championship to Chapel Hill, N.C.
UConn will battle hard, but with North Carolina’s experience from last year in the Final Four they will emerge victorious.
Predictions:
Semi-Finals on Saturday, April 4nd:
•North Carolina defeats Villanova
North Carolina has a 71 percent chance of defeating Villanova
•UConn defeats Michigan State
UConn has a 61 chance of defeating Michigan State
Finals on Monday, April 6th:
•North Carolina Defeats Uconn
University of North Carolina:
•Best Performance in the NCAA 2009: Oklahoma
•Best Player: Ty Lawson
•Best Asset: Super-human athletes and Tyler Hansbrough’s incredibly annoying intensity.
•Head Coach: Roy Williams (one National Championship)
Villanova:
•Best Performances in the NCAA 2009: Pittsburgh (probably the best game of the tournament so far)
•Best Player: Dwayne Anderson
•Best Asset: Free Throw Shooting
•Head Coach: Jay Wright (first Final Four Appearance)
University of Connecticut:
•Best Performance in the NCAA 2009: Texas A&M
•Best Player: A.J. Price
•Best Asset: Height and athleticism
•Head Coach: Head Coach Jim Calhoun (two National Championships)
Michigan State:
•Best Performance in the NCAA 2009: Louisville
•Best Player: Kailin Lucas
•Best Asset: Coach Tom Izzo
•Head Coach: Coach Tom Izzo (he’s just that good)
Comments
I’ve got UNC/Uconn in the finals as well, however, I have Uconn winning it. I had UNC, but I changed my mind at the last minute because of all the Lawson injury rumors before the tourney. They had a relatively easy road, but I don’t think that they can beat Uconn without Lawson at 100%. It appears that Lawson is fine, he has played as well as any time in his career. Uconn is very balanced, similar to their previous championship team, we’ll see if Price can perform like Ben Gordon, and we know Thabeet has the potential to be a difference maker inside. I think you need to show some love to Scottie Reynolds, he is the best player on that Villanova team.
I have to say that I enjoy your analysis and commend you on your choice of NC to win it all as I know you have general dislike for the team (I especially liked your description of Tyler Hansbrough’s incredibly annoying intensity). I agree with everything you’ve put forward, however I have to disagree with your decision of UConn over Michigan state. I’m going out on a limb here to go for Michigan state in this game. I agree that both UConn and Michigan state have proven they deserve to be here, however I think Michigan state will pull it out in the end thanks to head coach Tom Izzo, like you said he’s just that good. Overall though UNC’s taking this one, no question in my mind.
The beauty of the tournament is that its so unpredictable. No matter what info you have, it generally just doesnt matter, and we are not going to know what can happen until the teams step on the court, as illustrated by the epic Villanova-Pittsburgh game, which i had Nova winning. College basketball does tend to be fairly consistent though, having trends and themes throughout the year. For example, this year every team that has achieved a Number 1 ranking in the country has lost. And not always to a Final Four caliber team. In the tournament, there are four Number 1 seeds, one for each region, and naturally I chose against all of them because of this current trend. I had all number ones reaching and losing in the Elite 8 with none making it to the Final Four. I was half right, with Michigan State and Nova winning. My pick for National Champion (Memphis) has lost so my bracket is done, but I am in first place, with this weekend deciding whether myself or Perry here will win. He has UNC and UCONN playing for the final but I am sticking to my guns and saying that number one next to their name is their ultimate downfall. Im picking Villanova and Michigan State to advance to the finals, and I see Tom Izzo coaching circles around the entire Villanova program, allowing Michigan State to take home their next National Title. Here’s hopin.
Josh, you have been right so many times. But, I am rooting for UConn and Michigan State. My reasons are not the intelligent knowledgeable reasons everyone else listed (which by the way I enjoyed reading). My reasons—UConn because I live in the East, and Michigan because I grew up in the Midwest. North Carolina would be my third choice since my friend lives in North Carolina.
If Villanova plays with the intensity they had against Pitt, anything can happen. I respect the Villanova team.
I agree with Steve though—in the Final Four, rankings do not mean too much.
We shall see.
Anyone interested in the Women’s Final Four???!!!
Those who know me understand this rather strange response. For those who do not know me, I am a 66 year old grandmother and fan of almost all sports.
Great assessment, Josh. I agree with your picks and, unfortunately, have to agree with the conclusion that UNC will take it all. I’ve been very impressed by Villanova, UConn, and Michigan State. UNC really hasn’t impressed me as much — they just haven’t played with the passion displayed by the other three (especially Villanova). Unfortunately, UNC probably has the most talented line-up of the four teams. But I can see a way for UConn to defeat UNC, however remote that may be. If Thabeet can dominate the inside, play like a lion, and is backed up with strong and fearless play by his teammates on Monday, UConn just may squeeze out a win vs. UNC… That’s what I’m hoping will happen.
Jim
Ur O for one right now …
I have no idea what anyone is talking about… but that’s my little bro & I wanted him to know I at least READ IT… LOL.
Have a great day everyone.
Update:
Michigan state 82 Uconn 73.
UNC 83 Villanova 69
So I was 1 for 1. I am sticking with North Carolina as National Champions.
I went the same 1 for 1. Michigan State for the title. Tonight (Monday) at 9:21 is the tipoff.